From: Hazel Lyon, Leader of the Alliance to Liberate Scotland (ATLS)
Subject: Scotland cannot afford another decade of failed strategy
Mr. Swinney,
For more than a decade, the SNP has asked the independence movement to unite behind one central electoral message: “Both Votes SNP.The argument was always the same: concentrate support behind the SNP, dominate Holyrood, keep unionist parties out, and force Westminster to recognise Scotland’s democratic will.
The results now speak for themselves.
Since the 2014 referendum, the SNP’s regional list representation has steadily collapsed:
- 2016: 4 SNP list seats
- 2021: 2 SNP list seats
- 2026: 1 SNP list seat
This was not unpredictable. Scotland’s Additional Member System was specifically designed to prevent one-party dominance by redistributing regional seats away from parties that perform strongly in constituencies.
Many across the wider independence movement repeatedly warned that concentrating both votes behind a dominant constituency party would eventually waste list votes instead of maximising pro-independence representation. Those warnings were ignored, dismissed, or attacked.
The consequences are now undeniable.
Holyrood now contains 56 unionist MSPs enough to block any meaningful parliamentary route toward independence. Reform UK has entered the Scottish Parliament with 17 list seats, benefiting directly from an electoral imbalance that handed away opportunities the independence movement should never have lost.
This is not simply an electoral setback. It is the result of a political strategy that has failed repeatedly while demanding unquestioning loyalty from the movement expected to sustain it.
The deeper problem, however, is cultural as much as electoral.
The modern independence movement was never built solely by party headquarters, parliamentary managers, or centralised messaging operations. The energy that brought Scotland to within touching distance of independence in 2014 came from ordinary people, local campaigners, community organisers, artists, writers, activists, and grassroots movements who believed they were participating in a national cause greater than any single political party.
That spirit inspired hundreds of thousands of people because it felt alive, open, creative, hopeful, and driven by national purpose.
Over time, that energy has been replaced by excessive centralisation, rigid message discipline, and a political culture increasingly focused on protecting party dominance within devolution rather than building a genuine liberation movement.
Too often, independent pro-independence voices are treated as threats rather than allies. New strategic ideas are resisted instead of debated. Electoral control of the movement has become an objective in itself, even when it no longer serves the broader national cause.
This has created stagnation.
A movement seeking constitutional transformation cannot survive indefinitely in managerial mode. It cannot rely forever on cautious triangulation, process politics, and endless appeals to patience while support fragments and momentum dissipates.
Independence will not be achieved through party preservation alone.
It will require creativity, strategic flexibility, civic mobilisation, and the confidence to build a genuine multi-party national movement capable of adapting to political reality rather than denying it.
The Greens are not positioned to serve as the broad second electoral vehicle the movement requires. Their priorities extend well beyond the constitutional question, and recent constituency gains in Glasgow and Edinburgh came directly at the SNP’s expense demonstrating increasing competition within the pro-independence vote rather than coordinated strategy.
Meanwhile, other smaller pro-independence parties continue to divide support without building sufficient electoral momentum to break through effectively under the current system. ATLS received almost as many votes as the ISP, SSP, and WP combined, a clear indication of where significant momentum within the wider movement is now beginning to consolidate.
ATLS believes the movement must now confront political reality honestly.
If independence is truly the priority, then the strategy must fundamentally change. The goal cannot simply be SNP dominance at Holyrood. The goal must be constructing a durable parliamentary supermajority for independence itself.
That means openly acknowledging what Scotland’s electoral system clearly rewards: coordinated multi-party representation, not excessive concentration behind a single dominant party.
It also requires acknowledging a difficult truth:
“Both Votes SNP” was a strategic mistake.
A slogan designed to maximise party dominance ultimately weakened the wider independence movement’s parliamentary position and contributed directly to the loss of pro-independence opportunities on the regional lists.
ATLS therefore calls for a serious national discussion about coordinated electoral strategy across the independence movement, including support for a viable second pro-independence force on the regional list vote.
The objective should be clear:
- An 80-seat pro-independence supermajority that would establish an undeniable democratic mandate
- An eventual 86-seat two-thirds parliamentary supermajority demonstrating overwhelming national support and political legitimacy
- A movement built on cooperation, strategic intelligence, and national purpose rather than tribalism and internal gatekeeping.
This requires honesty from everyone involved especially the leadership of the SNP. Mr. Swinney, Scotland cannot afford another decade of repeating strategies that no longer deliver parliamentary gains while expecting the movement to remain silent about the consequences.
This is bigger than the SNP.
The question now is whether your party is prepared to become part of a broader national independence movement again one that empowers the grassroots, welcomes strategic plurality, and puts country before party interest or whether maintaining political dominance within the existing devolution settlement has become the overriding priority.
Scotland deserves clarity on that question.
Because the people who carried this movement on their backs in 2014 did not dedicate years of their lives simply to preserve a devolved administration.
They did it to build a nation.
Yours sincerely,
Hazel Lyon
Leader, Alliance to Liberate Scotland (ATLS)